Pre-launch economy assessment

Break your economy here —
not at launch.

GhostPlay runs your own economy model through 5,000 deterministic personas × 360 simulated days × 3 stress vectors and returns a severity-rated findings report in 48 hours. The evidence behind an expert pre-launch economy audit — backtested to reproduce real economy collapses. Board-ready PDF.

Backtested on real economies 48-hour findings report Response within 24h
Economy Audit Report
Day 360 · complete
Economy read
ALL CLASSES WITHIN GATE
MAPE 2.8%
PASS Exploit Shock — +300% txn volume Day 180
Fiat 2.1% MAPE Velocity Catalyst 3.4% MAPE
PASS Whale Flight — top 10% churn Day 180
Progression Sink 1.9% MAPE Wildcard Faucet 2.8% MAPE
PASS Progression Overdrive — velocity ≥400% Day 180
all 4 classes <5% MAPE findings report ready
Catches before launch Battle pass revolt Currency deflation spiral Day-25 progression burnout Whale-dependent sink failure P2W perception gap
What pre-launch simulation catches

The five failure modes
internal QA can't see.

Each follows the same pattern: behaviour that only emerges once a large, heterogeneous player population interacts with the economy simultaneously. Internal playtests can't replicate it. GhostPlay's stress vectors are designed to surface it before launch.

Battle pass revolt

Post-launch monetisation changes that hit a community whose spending expectations were set by prior seasons. Invisible until the first season transition — by then, the backlash cycle has started.

Currency deflation spiral

In-game currency loses utility when sink mechanisms underperform at live scale. Players revert to bartering. The economy's trust infrastructure collapses without a clear trigger visible in pre-launch data.

Day-25 progression burnout

Early adopters — the most engaged, highest-LTV segment — reach the progression ceiling far faster than the design model assumed. Retention cliffs follow. The pattern is structurally reproducible, but only visible at concurrency.

Whale-dependent sink failure

Economy sinks calibrated around top-tier spenders collapse when that cohort churns. The remaining economy inflates rapidly. A Whale Flight stress vector surfaces this before a single real player touches the game.

P2W perception gap

The spend ceiling is only legible once a large player population is spending simultaneously. The gap between design intent and community perception doesn't appear in any pre-launch dataset — unless you simulate it.

How it works

Weeks of playtesting.
Compressed to 48 hours.

Connect your economy model. GhostPlay runs it at 50× speed, injects three economic stress vectors at Day 180, and returns a severity-rated findings report.

01

Connect

Import your economy model from a CSV or Google Sheet, or sync it from PlayFab Economy V2. GhostPlay maps your four asset classes and validates in minutes — no finished build required.

CSV / Google SheetsPlayFab Economy V2UE5 Lyra extension
02

Simulate

5,000 deterministic parametric personas — Exploiters and Whales — run your economy for 360 simulated days at 50× real-time speed. Three stress vectors inject at Day 180.

5,000 agents360 days · 50× speed3 stress vectors
03

Report

A severity-rated findings report: a per-class economy-health read against all four Systemic Asset Classes, plus a mechanic-to-revenue ("fun-to-money") analysis — flagging where the economy holds and where it drifts.

≤5% MAPE gatefun-to-money readboard-ready PDF
Backtested

Most economy tools can't prove
they'd catch a real collapse.

We can. GhostPlay is backtested against real, publicly documented economies — it reproduces the ones that collapsed and clears the ones that shipped healthy. Getting both directions right on outcomes that are already public is the credibility check most tools in this space simply can't show.

COLLAPSE — CORRECTLY FLAGGED

Axie Infinity (SLP)

Uncapped SLP emission let farmers mint currency far faster than the single breeding sink could burn it — a mint-to-burn ratio reported around 4:1. SLP fell from roughly $0.40 to under $0.01: textbook faucet/sink hyperinflation. Rebuilt from its published post-mortems, GhostPlay flags the same collapse signature — before a single player is exposed.

faucet ≫ sinkhyperinflationflagged: off-track
HEALTHY — NO FALSE ALARM

Path of Exile

A sink-positive design with no gold: currency orbs are crafting reagents consumed on use, so every faucet is also a sink. It has stayed healthy across years of leagues. GhostPlay reads it as healthy and does not cry collapse — a tool that flags everything is worthless.

sink-positiveburn keeps paceread: healthy

Deterministic & reproducible

Behaviour Trees — no ML, no random seeds. Same model in, identical result out, every run. Any finding can be independently reproduced.

Backtested credibility

Reproduces documented collapses and clears economies that shipped healthy — the differentiator most economy tools can't claim.

Your economy, not a toy model

We simulate the model you actually built, imported from CSV, Google Sheets, or PlayFab Economy V2 — not a generic template.

Board-ready in 48 hours

A severity-rated, per-class read plus a mechanic-to-revenue analysis — evidence your board and publisher can act on.

Fits your stack

First-class PlayFab Economy V2 ingestion and a UE5 Lyra economy extension. Direct game-binary ingestion is on the Phase 2 roadmap.

Methodology

How the simulation
is actually built.

No black box. Here is exactly how the 5,000 personas are constructed, what "360 days" means operationally, and what each of the three stress vectors tests.

Construct 5,000 parametric personas

Each persona is driven by a deterministic Behaviour Tree — no machine learning, no random seeds — so every run is reproducible. The population is built from two economic archetypes: Exploiters, who find and maximise arbitrage opportunities, and Whales, who spend at the top tier of the monetisation funnel. Each archetype is parameterised across the cohort so the 5,000 agents span the behavioural range, not a single average player.

Run the full 360-day economy arc

"360 days" is the simulated lifespan of your economy, not wall-clock time. Every persona runs all 360 in-game days at roughly 50× real-time on ephemeral cloud infrastructure, so a full year of economic behaviour completes in wall-clock hours. Stress vectors inject at Day 180 — the major-expansion inflection point — and Day 180–360 is the post-shock evaluation window.

Inject the three stress vectors

At Day 180 the simulation injects three extreme-but-plausible shocks, each mapped to a Systemic Asset Class, to model the events that historically destabilise live-service economies:

Exploit Shock — transaction volume scaled ≥300% (3.0×) against the Fiat Currency class.
Whale Flight — the top-decile spender action rate collapses to 10% (0.1×) against the Progression Sink class.
Progression Overdrive — Velocity Catalyst utilisation spikes ≥400% (4.0×) and Wildcard Faucet velocity ≥200% (2.0×), simultaneously.

Score each asset class and report findings

Predictive accuracy is measured as MAPE independently for each of the four Systemic Asset Classes (Fiat Currency, Velocity Catalyst, Progression Sink, Wildcard Faucet) across the Day 180–360 window, against a ≤5% per-class accuracy gate. The output is a severity-rated findings report — a per-class economy-health read that flags where the economy drifts and how badly, plus a mechanic-to-revenue analysis. It is a diagnostic read, not a go/no-go stamp.

The accuracy gate
predictive MAPE 5% per asset class
<48h
Validation window
down from weeks of playtesting
5%
MAPE accuracy gate
per Systemic Asset Class, no fallback
3×
Stress vectors
exploit shock · whale flight · overdrive
Services

Designed for live-service teams.

From a first exploratory pilot to continuous baseline monitoring — every engagement delivers a findings report you can put in front of your board.

Discovery Pilot
A first engagement, scoped to a single stress vector and one asset class. A real findings report on your own economy — a low-commitment way to see the read.
  • 1 stress vector of your choice
  • 1 asset class deep-dive
  • PDF findings report
  • Orientation session included
Patch-Delta Retest
Re-assess after a balance patch against your frozen baseline — changed parameters only. Iterate on your economy without a full re-run.
  • Scoped to changed parameters only
  • Against your original frozen baseline
  • Updated findings report each retest
  • 48-hour turnaround
Live-Service Horizon
Continuous baseline monitoring against your live economy telemetry.
  • Continuous Control Baseline comparison
  • Monthly regression reports
  • Early-warning alerts on drift
  • Dedicated integration support
Phase 2 · Post-acquisition
Portfolio Sovereign
Unlimited economy verifications across your entire studio portfolio on a dedicated cluster.
  • Unlimited Pre-Production Audits
  • Dedicated compute cluster
  • Multi-title economy federation
  • 3-year minimum · white-glove onboarding
Phase 2 · Post-acquisition
How it compares

Where GhostPlay fits
against the alternatives.

Design tools, spreadsheets, and manual QA each solve part of the problem. None of them stress-test a built economy at launch scale before release.

Capability GhostPlay Machinations.io Spreadsheets Manual QA
Pre-launch validation Yes — stress-tests the built economy before release Design-time modelling, not validation of the shipped game Static formulas — no behavioural simulation Small-scale human playtests, not launch-scale
Economy read Severity-rated findings report — a per-class economy-health read, not a go/no-go stamp No structured read — a modelling canvas None Subjective reviewer notes
Backtested credibility Yes — reproduces documented collapses, clears economies that shipped healthy No published backtest No No
Board-ready report Yes — structured findings report for stakeholders Diagrams, not stakeholder reports No Informal notes
Simulation depth 5,000 parametric personas × 360 simulated days × 3 stress vectors Designer-built model graphs (manual) Single-path formulas A handful of human testers
Time required Wall-clock hours (≈50× real-time) Weeks of manual modelling Days–weeks of manual upkeep Weeks of playtests
Cost Per-audit engagement ≈$49–$299/mo per seat/studio Internal staff time Internal staff time at scale
What is game economy validation?

The data-driven answer to "will this economy hold?"

Game economy validation is the process of stress-testing a live-service game's economic systems — currencies, rewards, progression sinks, and monetisation loops — against simulated player behaviour before launch. Unlike post-launch analytics, which detect economy failures after real players experience them, pre-launch validation runs thousands of deterministic player personas through the full economy lifecycle and produces a severity-rated findings report: a per-class read of where the economy holds and where it drifts. GhostPlay automates this process using a parametric simulation engine: 5,000 economic personas, 360 simulated days, three economic stress vectors, delivered as a PDF findings report in under 48 hours. The engine is backtested against publicly documented economies — it reproduces known collapses such as Axie Infinity's SLP hyperinflation and clears economies that shipped healthy such as Path of Exile.

View our F2P Economy Health Benchmarks →

FAQ

Common questions.

What is the difference between game economy design and game economy validation?
Economy design is the process of creating the rules, currencies, and progression systems that govern how players earn and spend in your game. Economy validation is a separate step: it stress-tests those rules against simulated player behaviour to confirm the economy will hold under real launch conditions. Design tools like Machinations help you build the economy; GhostPlay tells you whether what you built is structurally sound before players ever touch it.
How does parametric player simulation differ from real playtesting?
Real playtesting relies on human players whose behaviour is unpredictable, expensive to scale, and slow — a meaningful playtest of a 360-day economy arc is not feasible before launch. GhostPlay uses 5,000 deterministic parametric personas (Exploiters and Whales) that reproduce consistent, reproducible economic behaviour at 50× real-time speed. The result is a statistically rigorous, per-class economy-health read, not a sample of anecdotal feedback.
What does the GhostPlay findings report tell my board?
GhostPlay delivers a severity-rated economy findings report: a per-class economy-health read scored against the MAPE accuracy gate — predictive accuracy within ≤5% per Systemic Asset Class — plus a mechanic-to-revenue ("fun-to-money") analysis. For each Systemic Asset Class it shows whether the economy holds within tolerance or drifts, and how badly. Boards and investor decks need defensible documentation before committing eight- and nine-figure launch budgets; a structured per-class findings report gives finance and design teams evidence they can act on. It is a diagnostic read, not a go/no-go stamp on your launch.
How do you know GhostPlay's simulation is credible?
GhostPlay is backtested against real, publicly documented economies. It reproduces known collapses — for example Axie Infinity's SLP hyperinflation, where uncapped emission drove mint past burn and the token fell from roughly $0.40 to under $0.01 — by flagging the same faucet-to-sink imbalance. It also clears economies that shipped healthy, such as Path of Exile's sink-positive currency design, without raising a false alarm. Getting both directions right on outcomes that are already public is the credibility check most economy tools can't show.
How long does a GhostPlay economy assessment take?
Under 48 hours from model submission to findings-report delivery. GhostPlay runs your economy at roughly 50× real-time speed on ephemeral cloud infrastructure, so 360 simulated days complete in wall-clock hours. The PDF findings report is delivered on completion — no manual review step required.
What do I need to run a GhostPlay economy assessment?
Your economy model, not a finished build. In Phase 1 you import it from a CSV or Google Sheet, or sync it from PlayFab Economy V2, mapping your four Systemic Asset Classes. Studios on Unreal Engine 5 Lyra can also connect through the GhostPlay Economy Extension plugin. Direct game-binary ingestion is on the Phase 2 roadmap.
Can GhostPlay audit a live service game mid-season?
Yes. The Patch-Delta Retest service re-audits your economy against your original frozen baseline after any balance patch or content update. Only the changed parameters are re-simulated, reducing turnaround to under 48 hours and cost relative to a full audit. This is the basis of the Live-Service Horizon continuous monitoring retainer.
How does GhostPlay simulate 5,000 player personas?
GhostPlay uses deterministic Behaviour Trees — not generative AI or random seeds — to model two distinct economic archetypes: Exploiters (players who find and maximise arbitrage opportunities) and Whales (players who spend at the top tier of the monetisation funnel). Each persona runs the full 360-day economy arc with defined interaction rules. Three stress vectors (Exploit Shock, Whale Flight, Progression Overdrive) inject at Day 180 to model the extreme-but-plausible events that historically trigger live-service economy failures.
What does the GhostPlay audit report include?
The PDF findings report includes: a severity-rated per-class economy-health read (within tolerance or drifting, and by how much), MAPE scores per Systemic Asset Class (Fiat, Velocity Catalyst, Progression Sink, Wildcard Faucet), stress vector results with per-class accuracy, and remediation levers for any class that breaches the ≤5% gate. The report is formatted for board and investor review.
What if my economy passed internal playtesting?
Internal playtesting validates gameplay feel and surface-level balance — it cannot replicate what happens when a large, heterogeneous player population interacts with the economy simultaneously at launch scale. The failure modes that end live-service games (currency deflation spirals, progression burnout, whale-flight-driven sink collapse) are structurally invisible in playtests because they require the concurrency, spending variance, and early-adopter rush behaviour that only emerge with a real playerbase. GhostPlay's parametric simulation is specifically designed to reproduce those conditions before launch.
Can GhostPlay audit a battle pass or seasonal economy?
Yes. Battle pass and seasonal monetisation systems are a supported audit scope. GhostPlay's Exploit Shock vector models the transaction-volume spike that accompanies season launches, and the Progression Overdrive vector surfaces how your most-engaged players will burn through the season track relative to design assumptions. The Patch-Delta Retest service supports iterative season-by-season auditing against a frozen baseline, so each new season pass is validated before it goes live.
Quick check

Check your economy free —
60 seconds, no signup.

Paste your 4-row economy model and get an instant Mint-to-Burn health verdict. No auth required. Perfect for a quick sanity check before you commit to a full audit.

Try the health check Or request a full audit
See what you'll get

Sample findings report

Explore a real GhostPlay audit deliverable. This fictional economy analysis shows the report format, severity ratings, remediation guidance, and stress vector results you'll receive.

View sample report
Private beta · 2026

Stop guessing.
Launch with evidence.

Leave your email and we'll set up a call. Every engagement starts as a conversation — tell us about your economy and we'll scope the assessment.

NDA on request Backtested methodology Response within 24h