F2P Economy Research

F2P Economy Health
Benchmarks

The first published quantitative benchmarks for live-service game economy health. Derived from GhostPlay parametric simulation data.

Methodology note. These benchmarks are derived from GhostPlay's parametric simulation runs. They represent what our simulation identifies as healthy vs. at-risk economy parameters. They are not an independent academic study or industry-wide consensus — they are the thresholds our audit engine validates against. All figures carry GhostPlay simulation methodology sourcing.

Benchmark 01

Sink-to-Source Ratio

The ratio of currency removed from the economy (sinks) to currency introduced (sources), measured per genre archetype. A ratio below 1.0 indicates net currency creation; above 1.0 indicates net removal.

Healthy Ratio Range by Genre

GhostPlay simulation methodology · Phase 1
Genre Healthy Range Status Signal
Battle royale 0.85 – 1.15 Healthy Near-parity; small deviation tolerated by frequent play cadence
RPG / progression-heavy 1.1 – 1.4 Healthy Sink-dominant expected; currency scarcity drives upgrade tension
MMO-lite / social 1.2 – 1.6 Healthy Higher sink pressure supports long-term social economy loops
Casual / hyper-casual 0.7 – 0.95 Monitor Source-dominant; acceptable given lower session depth, but inflation risk rises above 0.95
Outside the healthy range: values below floor indicate sink overdrive (player frustration); values above ceiling indicate source inflation (currency devaluation).
Benchmark 02

Monthly Currency Inflation Threshold

The month-over-month percentage increase in aggregate currency velocity across the active player base. Measured as a rolling 30-day delta.

Velocity Increase Thresholds

GhostPlay simulation methodology · Phase 1
Zone Monthly Velocity Increase Status Recommended Action
Healthy < 3% Pass No action required; economy absorbing new content normally
Warning 3% – 7% Warning Review recent source additions; consider tightening sink parameters in next patch
Critical > 7% Critical Immediate rebalancing required; at this velocity, IAP value erosion accelerates within 60 days
Velocity is distinct from supply: a stable supply with rapidly increasing transaction frequency still signals inflation risk.
Benchmark 03

IAP Price Anchoring Norms

The structural relationship between the lowest-priced SKU, the primary anchor item, and the whale-tier ceiling. Anchoring ratios outside these norms compress willingness-to-pay or create value confusion.

Anchoring Structure

GhostPlay simulation methodology · Phase 1
Anchor Item Value
40–60×
The primary mid-tier SKU should be priced at 40–60× the value of the lowest-priced SKU. This range maximises the perceived value step without creating a gap large enough to lose casual spenders.
Whale Ceiling (vs. anchor)
≤ 8×
The highest-tier SKU should not exceed 8× the anchor item's value. Beyond this ratio, the top-tier becomes aspirational rather than attainable and whale conversion rates fall.
Example: if the entry SKU is $0.99, the anchor should be in the $40–$60 range and the whale ceiling should not exceed ~$400.
Benchmark 04

Day-30 Free-Path Currency Accumulation

The total currency a free-to-play (non-paying) player should be able to accumulate through normal play in their first 30 days. Measured in normalized units against the economy's base denomination.

Accumulation Floor (Normalized Units)

GhostPlay simulation methodology · Phase 1
Healthy Floor
800 – 1,200
Free-path players accumulating within this range experience adequate progression tension without feeling locked out of core content loops.
Risk Signal
< 600
Accumulation below 600 normalized units is a sink overdrive signal — free players cannot meaningfully participate in economy loops, increasing early churn and reducing long-term whale pipeline.
Normalized units: scaled relative to the cheapest meaningful cosmetic or progression item in the economy. Actual currency values vary per title.
Benchmark 05

Whale Segment Health

The share of total IAP revenue attributable to the top 5% of spenders. High concentration in a small cohort creates acquisition fragility — losing a small number of accounts causes disproportionate revenue collapse.

Top-5% Spender Share of Total IAP Revenue

GhostPlay simulation methodology · Phase 1
Zone Top-5% Share Status Risk Profile
Healthy 35% – 45% Healthy Strong whale contribution without over-dependence; mid-tier spenders are meaningfully engaged
Fragility signal > 55% Fragility Over-dependence on small cohort; Whale Flight stress vector will cause outsized revenue impact; mid-tier monetisation requires intervention
Intermediate zone (45–55%): monitor closely. Not a critical signal, but mid-tier conversion programs are advisable before it crosses the fragility threshold.
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